Softs

The Egyptian state company GASC held an auction to purchase milling wheat for delivery between November 25 and December 5, 2024, or between December 6 and December 15, 2024. There were 35 offers for sale at the tender from Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, and France. All offers are under FOB terms: - From Russia: 21 offers at a price of 265 USD/ton. - From Ukraine: 2 offers at a price of 263 USD/ton. - From Romania: 5 offers at prices ranging from 267.50 to 275 USD/ton. - From Bulgaria: 3 offers at prices between 264 and 269 USD/ton. The offers are from Cargill at 264 USD/ton and Buildcom at 269 USD/ton. - From France: 4 offers at prices ranging from 271 to 275 USD/ton. https://t.co/lbK5aLKlC2.

Over the past week, there was significant rainfall in the United States. In Western Europe, dry weather was favorable for fieldwork. In the Black Sea region, there was little rain. In Brazil, rain continued, while in Argentina, rainfall was light. In the next 10 days, light to moderate rainfall, including some snow in the north, is expected in the US Corn Belt. The US Wheat Belt will experience warm and dry weather. In Western Europe, weather will be cool with light rain. The Balkans will see warm weather with light rain. Weather across Ukraine will be cool with light rain, while Russia will be cold with almost no precipitation. Weather in India and China is expected to remain mostly dry, with China also experiencing cold weather. Good rainfall is anticipated in Indonesia and Malaysia. In Australia, light rain is expected in the west and south, with more precipitation in the east. Rain will cover all of Brazil, while Argentina will have moderate rainfall across the country. https://t.co/iyYsWoG9dc.

The price of #rapeseed in the EU rose to 525 EUR/ton due to a weak production of 17.15 million tons, which is 2.6 million tons less than last year. The #sunseed production is expected to be 8.9 million tons (-0.9 million tons). In Ukraine, the sunseed price has reached a historic high, with some processors operating at no profit. https://t.co/Gm6g6OlLPZ.

According to a forecast by Ukroliaprom, #sunseed oil production in #Ukraine will be 5.6 million tons in 2024/25 (compared to 6.6 million in 2023/24).

Our Elections Utter Losers and Winners Deservedly Losers The pollswith the exception once again of AltasIntel, Trafalgar, and Rasmussenwere off, and way off in the Senate races. The pollsters reputation is again in full reverse and now back to their nadir of 2020 and 2016. Many shamelessly warped their data in the last two weeks to gin up Harris momentum, fund-raising, and voter turnout. And to no avail. There were plenty of indications long ago in key states of a Trump thunderstorm: defections of minorities, anger among both the Jewish and Muslim voters, alienated union members, massive increases in Republican registrations and non-Election-Day balloting. And all were deliberately ignored by the corrupt media and pollsters. Democrats know but will do nothing about the factthey have become the party of the upscale professionals and rich, and the subsidized poor. They have alienated the entire middle classwhite, black, Hispanicand ceding it to the new Republican populist-nationalist party. Open borders, hyperinflation, abortion deification, the transgendered mania, the crime wave, and the green obsessions all did their bit to repel voters. The racist Trump won more minority support than any Dole, McCain, or Romney figure of the past. What now will the buffoonish Alvin Bragg, Fani Willis, and Jack Smith do with their pseudo-indictments and convictions? Try to nullify an American election by putting the president-elect in jail, as the projectionist and now paranoid Left screams that a soon to be President Trump might lawfare them in the manner they did him? Democrat incumbent senators by late September knew their internal polls were bleeding. So, they decided to junk their lifelong voting records, ideology, and transient fealty to Harris, and chameleon-like to absorb the Trump agendas. That proved too fake and opportunistic for most voters. Remember, we will soon be soon back to 2017-era leftwing hysteria. The Left, as it licks its numerous wounds, will reemerge soon to get back the House and impeach Trump, riot on Inauguration Day, gin up more lawfare with hackish local and state prosecutors, insert more deep-state Anonymous obstructors into the swamp, draft more has-been generals to trash their commander-in-chief, and reach for the absurdities like the Logan Act, 25th Amendment or more collusion myths. After all, the party that said democracy was on the ballot is now the most anti-democratic force in modern history. Will a Josh Shapiro try to do a Bill Clinton on the Democratic Party as the latter did after the McGovern/Carter disasters? Winners? Donald Trump, of course. After a decade of Russian collusion farces, laptop disinformation ruses, two impeachments, attempted ballot removal, five civil and criminal suits, two assassination attempts, and a swat team raid on his home, the indestructible 78-year-old Trump has just pulled off the greatest political comeback in presidential history. Trump was out-funded by Harris. The media gave him 95 percent negative coverage. The glitterati trashed him nonstop and even stooped to sabotage Saturday Night Live, in vain, to stop him. The ridiculous Obamas jetted out of their mansions to lie about Trump nonstop and talk down to their own voters. All they proved was that the phantom, supposedly miracle Michelle Obama candidacy would have been even worse than Harris. An arrogant Oprah and the View really believed people believed their gossipy paranoia about Trump. In the end, Trump proved more energetic and industrious than Harris, smarter than seasoned politicos, and utterly authentic, preferring to be genuine and occasionally crude than the inauthentic and sappy Harris. He may likely be the first Republican to win 51 percent of the vote since 1988, and the first to win the popular vote in twenty years. As a general rule, those in the conservative and Republican movements who stood by Trump have won with him. Those who damned him ended up inert or wandering aimlessly in the political wilderness. What happens to the Liz Cheneys and Larry Hogans of the world? There are no now more Never Trump conservatives. That is a misnomer for those who were after a decade mostly either leftwing or subsidized by the Left as useful idiotsor irrelevant. Contrast all that with the even more ascendent and buoyant mavericks like Elon Musk, RFK, Jr., Joe Rogan, and Tulsi Gabbard. I watched the tears, denial, and fury of the MSNBC and CNN crowd as they struggled first to fantasize nonexistent pathways to victory, then to revisit Russian collusion and lawfare, then to claim the proverbial nave and stupid electorate was deluded into voting against its real interests (as defined by MSNBC grandees), and finally to announce that the worldcurrently on the nuclear precipice of Biden-induced, escalating, theater-wide warswill be aghast at the will of the American people. In other words, the political-media Leftist fusion sermonized about everything other than why they were rejected by the American people. What a pathetic bunch our media have become. And lastly Biden? The left who dreamed up the 2020 idea of using the fake ol Joe Biden from Scranton as moderate cover for the hard-left agendadoes not know whether to blame Joe for not getting out earlier, or to claim their July coup was now a mistake and they would have been better off with a candidate cognitively challenged by dementia rather than one by innate inability. So, Democrats will blame everyone and everythingexcept themselves who sought to drive down the American peoples throat the most radical and absurd agenda of the last two centuries that ruined the economy, exploded our border, made moonscapes of our big cities, destroyed womens sports, set the world abroad afire, weaponized the courts and the bureaucracies, and sought to tear the country in two. RIP to all that. https://t.co/30zki2pece.

Rabobank expects a record #soybean production in #Brazil in 2024/25 of 167 million tons (+9% from the 2023/24 level). The delay in planting does not pose risks to the crop but rather to the next second #corn production. Soybean planting areas in Brazil will increase by 1.5% to 47 million hectares. The corn production forecast has been increased by 3 million tons to 125 million tons. https://t.co/A2lE4WHEKG.

While everyone was understandably glued to the US election, they missed a big one for the global economy. Gasoil demand is now contracting. Thats huge because gasoil basically all kinds of diesel goes into everything. And since energy use is price inelastic, that means if the world is using less its only because less is happening in the economy. i.e., recession Demand is so weak, theres about to be a surplus of oil. 1. **Declining Fuel Demand**: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported a rare decline in global demand for gas oil (diesel) in 2024. Last time it happened was 2020, before that 2016 when the global economy plunged (not just China). 2. **Ongoing Supply Glut in Oil Markets**: Falling demand for diesel and other oil products is leading to oversupply in the market. OPEC has been delaying production restoration in response to weak demand. Cartel was supposed to start restoring production at the end of this month after being delayed in September. Now theyre saying maybe by 2025. 3. **Global Economic Weakness**: The downturn is not limited to specific regions but is a global phenomenon affecting advanced economies and emerging markets like India and China. This isnt just an Asia thing. Advanced economies are very much a big part of the trouble. 4. **Manufacturing and Auto Industry Struggles**: Looking at energy demand from the other side, major automakers, including Nissan and Ford, are facing significant challenges with declining sales and rising inventory levels. Nissan just announced a 30% production cut for North American models due to these issues specifically in the US, forecasting further layoffs and reduced workforce hours. You cant get away from energy usage. If demand is falling, its because the economy is. Even with OPEC continuing to hold back on production, the markets are expecting a supply glut anyway. No contribution from the Beijing bazooka nor a positive effect from Fed/ECB/etc. rate theater. This is why war in the Middle East barely registers in oil prices anymore. https://t.co/VF4qdJLkUB https://t.co/aDdYRnU6lP https://t.co/SlhiiV7U2m.

South Africa must remain a reliable food supplier to Southern Africa South Africas agriculture and agribusiness sectors have a broader responsibility for food security beyond our borders. The Southern Africa region leans heavily on South Africa for food supplies. This is clear from the observation of South Africas agricultural exports. The country exported about US$13,2 billion of agricultural and processed food products in 2023, according to data from Trade Map. Nearly 40% of these exports were for the African continent. Notably, roughly 90 cents in every dollar of South Africas agricultural exports to the African continent is from the Southern Africa region. Grains, fruits, vegetables, and selected beverages are typically high on South Africas list of agriculture and food exports to the Southern Africa region. Not all countries rely equally on South Africas agriculture and food industry. There are just seven dominant countries, namely, Botswana, Namibia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Eswatini, and Zambia, which accounted for 81% of South Africas agricultural exports to the African continent in 2023. In fact, over the past five years, these countries have accounted, on average, for 80% of South Africas agricultural exports to the African continent a year. In the case of the staple grain of the Southern Africa region, maize, South Africa has remained a reliable supplier of it to the region even in times of drought crisis. Thus, it is vital that even in the challenging 2023-24, where South Africas maize harvest is down 22% from the previous year to 12,80 million tonnes, the exports continue. South Africa must remain a reliable supplier of food products to the region. This provides stability and ensures South Africas regional food security anchor position. Between May and mid-October 2024, South Africa exported about 1,03 million tonnes of maize. Except for those that went to Saudi Arabia, all these exports were for the Southern Africa region. There will likely be more exports in the coming week, as the export forecast for the season is 1,90 million tonnes. This is down notably from the 3,44 million tonnes of exports in the last season because of the poor harvest. The large maize carryover stock from the previous season has helped to boost South Africas maize supplies as an addition to the harvest. In some countries, in seasons like the one we are leaving behind, where the El-Nino-induced drought led to a poor harvest, there would be a temptation for an export curb. However, South Africa maintains an open market policy, where export activity continues, and the market adjusts prices guided by available information. The vital matter in South Africa is for the market players to regularly publish their export volumes through the Southern African Grain Information Services so that there is a general understanding of the available supplies and prices to adjust for potential risks. This open market approach has been practiced since the deregulation of agricultural markets in 1997. Since then, South Africas grain and broader agricultural markets have operated quite efficiently. Our sound history shows no need for intervention or grain reserves going forward. South Africas open market policy stance of allowing food trade to always take place even in years of production stress is important for food stability in region. Various other important exports include prepared or processed foods, wheat, apples and pears, maize meal, sugar, fruit juices, wine, and soybean oil, rice, soups, and sunflower oil, amongst other products. This strong linkage between South Africas agricultural exports to the Southern Africa region and the vast responsibility of regional food security led us to argue for caution whenever there is trade friction in various products between South Africa and the regional countries. Millions of people could be victims of high prices when countries restrict trade, as could be the case with the decisions by Botswana and Namibia to temporarily ban imports of high-quality South African vegetables. Equally, South Africas reaction could have a significant impact on the regions food security stability. Thus, the ideal path is always to address trade discomforts diplomatically, prioritize regional agriculture, and avoid friction. https://t.co/xMGeF3m8OA.

In 2024, Russia's #soybean and #rapeseed productions are expected to reach record levels of 7 million and 4.8 million tons, respectively. The #sunseed production is projected at 15.85 million tons (down from 17.25 million in 2023). In 2023, the total oilseed production was 29.9 million tons (compared to 29.1 million in 2022). https://t.co/DPbah9xiUr.

Palm Oil: Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to exceed 19 million tons in 2025. Achieving 20 million tons will take several years due to slow replanting and few new plantations. Foreign workers in plantations are gradually increasing, but it will take time to reach pre-COVID levels. Traders expect palm oil to exceed 1,140 USD/ton by June 2025. Starting in January 2025, sunflower oil prices may rise in line with palm, soy, and rapeseed oils due to reduced sunseed productions across the Black Sea region, down 78 million tons from 2023. https://t.co/RnjSJUIXsK.

According to an FAS USDA forecast, Argentina's soybean production in 2024/25 will be 52 million tons (compared to 49.5 million in 2023/24). Processing will be 42 million tons (41.5 million).

The authorities in Indonesia are taking measures to expand palm plantations ahead of the introduction of the B50 standard. Currently, the area is 16.8 million hectares, with 50.07 million tons of CPO produced in 2023. With the introduction of the new standard in 2026, 20 million kiloliters of CPO will be needed annually, given current capacities of 17 18 million kiloliters. https://t.co/501RfwluFG.

For the United State, a halt on used oil imports could boost the demand for soyoil in biofuel production, consequently reducing soybean ending stocks. A similar impact is expected for corn. Moving from E10 to E12 gasoline would significantly reduce the U.S.s high corn stocks. Brazil and Indonesia follow this approach closely, driving up agricultural commodity prices in those countries. https://t.co/bPlgkEVn7D.

In 2024/25, #Indias imports of vegetable oils are expected to fall to 15 million tons due to strong oilseed productions. In 2023/24, India imported 16 million tons of oils. #Palmoil imports for 2023/24 were 9.2 million tons (down from 9.8 million in 2022/23), making up 60% of total oil imports. #Sunseed oil imports are projected to increase to 3.5 million tons (from 2.9 million). https://t.co/eHSWNS2Brf.

In Russia, 90.4% of sunseed areas have been harvested, yielding 16.4 million tons with an average yield of 1.66 tons per hectare. The country produces about 30% of the worlds sunseed production.

According to a forecast by IKAR, Russias grain production in 2025 will reach 130 million tons, including 8185 million tons of wheat. It is more likely that the wheat production will be close to 85 million tons.

2) Soyoil stks fell by -2.7% w/w but increased by 15% y/y, palm oil stks rose by 10.6% w/w but fell by 34% y/y, RPsd oil stks rose by 4% w/w increased by 15% y/y, the combined stks of the veg oils 3/ rose by 1.9% w/w but remained at -12.9% y/y.

After a month of rain in South America, soil moisture in Argentina and Brazil is still below optimal levels. Soil moisture analyses show significantly lower levels than normal, which is widespread. Subsoil moisture remains low and is slow to recover, though it is essential for achieving high corn yields after the wet season. Corn relies on deep moisture to fill kernels and ensure a high yield. https://t.co/DyYTUTyYu1.