While everyone was understandably glued to the US election, they missed a big one for the global economy. Gasoil demand is now contracting. Thats huge because gasoil basically all kinds of diesel goes into everything. And since energy use is price inelastic, that means if the world is using less its only because less is happening in the economy. i.e., recession Demand is so weak, theres about to be a surplus of oil. 1. **Declining Fuel Demand**: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported a rare decline in global demand for gas oil (diesel) in 2024. Last time it happened was 2020, before that 2016 when the global economy plunged (not just China). 2. **Ongoing Supply Glut in Oil Markets**: Falling demand for diesel and other oil products is leading to oversupply in the market. OPEC has been delaying production restoration in response to weak demand. Cartel was supposed to start restoring production at the end of this month after being delayed in September. Now theyre saying maybe by 2025. 3. **Global Economic Weakness**: The downturn is not limited to specific regions but is a global phenomenon affecting advanced economies and emerging markets like India and China. This isnt just an Asia thing. Advanced economies are very much a big part of the trouble. 4. **Manufacturing and Auto Industry Struggles**: Looking at energy demand from the other side, major automakers, including Nissan and Ford, are facing significant challenges with declining sales and rising inventory levels. Nissan just announced a 30% production cut for North American models due to these issues specifically in the US, forecasting further layoffs and reduced workforce hours. You cant get away from energy usage. If demand is falling, its because the economy is. Even with OPEC continuing to hold back on production, the markets are expecting a supply glut anyway. No contribution from the Beijing bazooka nor a positive effect from Fed/ECB/etc. rate theater. This is why war in the Middle East barely registers in oil prices anymore. https://t.co/VF4qdJLkUB https://t.co/aDdYRnU6lP https://t.co/SlhiiV7U2m.