Fed cut ST rates by 50bps so 10y soars higher by 80bps? Did the bond market completely change its mind about the Fed, the economy and inflation? No. This is just curve steepening and we see this in every cycle - even +80bps selloffs in 10y. Not unusual at all. 1. Lost in the focus on the 10s, there appears to be two different yield curves. LT and MT yields are rising fast, but the front end is doing the opposite. There's your first hint. Lower rates at the front, bull steepening. 2. This steepening often occurs during recessionary periods and this part of it reflects different responses from various sections of the yield curve to economic uncertainty and market developments. After the huge rally through summer, retracement is normal and expected. 3. What's happening now is an almost exact replay of the first couple months of the dot-com recession, uncanny parallels. Rates (ST & LT) fell while payrolls were still positive then the recession start, payrolls turned negative and LT rates soared; 10y yield increased by more than 80bps (sound familiar?) 4. Market uncertainty plays a critical role in shaping the behavior of interest rates, particularly at the long end of the yield curve. This uncertainty leads to divergence in movements between the front end and the back. In the front, uncertainty is diminishing - rate cuts are coming. At the back end, uncertainty is rising after the previous rally. 5. Overall economic indicators suggest that the economy is approaching a recession, with the October payroll report indicative of longer-term trends rather than immediate stability. Bull steepening is when rates go down, all of them: short, middle and long parts of the curve. But they dont move lower at the same speeds nor at exactly the same times and in the same ways. Each piece responds to information and developments differently, sometimes focusing on separate inputs. Full story here: https://t.co/kpDiNoSfaV https://t.co/yTXoBNBQMR https://t.co/96PkwPb6mW.